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Oil booms and sectoral credit shares: A new axiom of the natural resource curse

Time: 13:00-15:00 (UK Time), Wednesday, 18 October 2023
Presenters: Dr. Morakinyo O. Adetutu, Loughborough University; Dr. Kayode A. Odusanya, Loughborough University; Dr. John E. Ebireri, Nottingham Trent University & Prof. Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London
Chair: Prof. Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London

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Abstract

How do oil booms affect the credit shares of tradable and non-tradable sectors in oil-producing economies? To study this question, we carefully construct a monthly dataset on bank credit to manufacturing, petroleum, and service sectors across 16 oil-producing countries during 1995-2017. Consistent with the natural resource curse hypothesis, we find that oil booms had a strong negative (positive) impact on manufacturing (oil and service) share of credit. This finding holds after controlling for endogeneity and alternative oil boom measures, among other sensitivity tests. Our novel results indicate that credit share patterns during oil booms embody a previously unexplored axiom of the natural resource curse hypothesis.  

Keywords: Sectoral credit share, oil boom, tradable sector, non-tradable sector, natural resource curse. 

JEL Classification : C23 ; D22 ; E44 ; G21 

Presenters

Dr Morakinyo O. Adetutu is Lecturer in Economics at Loughborough Business School, since July 2020. Previously, he worked as a Lecturer in Economics at Nottingham Trent University and as a Senior Teaching Fellow at the University of Warwick. He completed his PhD at Loughborough University in 2015. In terms of research interests, Morakinyo is currently investigating natural resource endowment and environmental pollution issues, and how they shape financial markets and health outcomes. 

Dr. John E. Ebireri is Senior Lecturer at Nottingham Business School. Previously, he was an academic member of staff at the Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow and the Salford Business School, University of Salford where he taught different modules in Economics (Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, International Monetary Economics, Principles of Economics). His research interest are in the areas of Financial Reforms, Financial Development and the Real Economy, Poverty and Income Inequality, Economic Development, and the Role of the State. 

Dr. Kayode A. Odusanya is Lecturer in Information Systems and Programme Lead for BSc Management at Loughborough University. His expertise is in technology diffusion and usage, information technology and culture, and information economics. He holds a PhD in Management Information Systems from Loughborough University, an MBA in Green Energy and Sustainable Businesses from the University of Bologna Italy and a BSc (Hons) in Electronic/Electrical Engineering from Obafemi Awolowo University Nigeria. Prior to his appointment, Kayode held a Lecturer in Management position at Nottingham Trent University (NTU) where he also completed his Postgraduate Certificate in Academic Practice (PGCAP). 

Professor Victor Murinde is the AXA Chair in Global Finance (endowed by the AXA Research Fund) and the founding Director of the Research Centre for Global Finance, at SOAS University of London. Previously, he was Professor of Development Finance at the University of Birmingham (1999-2010); he was also the founding Director of the African Development Institute at the African Development Bank (2011-2014). His ongoing funded research projects cover bank regulation, FinTech for financial inclusion, climate risk finance, and application of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods to banks and financial markets. He has contributed over 120 research papers and 15 books to the economics, banking and finance literature. For his research, networking and impact, he was awarded the Doctoris Honoris Causa by Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech) on 17 September 2003, with the dictum, “in recognition of your merits in Financial Economics and Banking and promotion of British-Estonian collaboration in research”. His research resonates with policy and practice, as endorsed in research impact assessments: According to the UK Research Excellence Framework 2014 (REF2014), his research on “Shaping Bank Regulatory Reforms in Africa” was recognized for exceptional impact; also, in the recent UK Research Excellence Framework 2021 (REF2021), his joint research (with Ulrich Volz and Gerhard Kling) on “Climate Risk and Cost of Capital for the Vulnerable (V20) Countries” was identified for outstanding impact. He is Chair of Group C (Finance & Resource Mobilisation) of the Africa Economic Research Consortium (AERC). He was inducted by premier learned societies: As a Fellow of the Econometric Society; a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences; and a Fellow of Royal Society of Arts.