Time: 13:00-15:00 (UK Time), Wednesday, 27 April 2022
Presenters: Prof. Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London; Dr. Athina Petropoulou, SOAS University of London
Chair: Prof. Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London
Online venue: Click here to join the seminar on Microsoft Teams (For any inquiry about how to join the online seminar, please contact Dr Meng Xie: xm1@soas.ac.uk)
Abstract
In response to the economic shutdown caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, many governments around the world implemented unprecedented financial packages to support businesses and households. In particular, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a Quantitative Easing (QE) plan of over USD700 billion, which was extended in June 2020, committing to buy at least USD80 billion a month in Treasuries and USD40 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Consequently, since March 2020, there has been an upsurge in global money growth which, combined with economic shutdown and associated collapse in industrial output, may engender exceptional inflationary inertia after more than 10 years of almost zero inflation. The main question addressed in this paper is how central banks in developing economies are reacting to global money growth and the new threat of inflation. We draw on unique datasets which capture the experience across developing countries. We specify a plausible empirical model, which innovatively encompasses competing hypotheses from the neoclassical and new-structuralist paradigms and therefore captures the upsurge on global money growth as well as the supply side issues involving production and labour market constraints. Based on preliminary empirical findings, we put forward some tentative ideas on how central banks in developing countries should react to the current upsurge in global money growth.
Presenters
Prof. Victor Murinde
Professor Victor Murinde (PhD, FRSA, FAcSS) holds the AXA Chair in Global Finance and is the Founding Director of the Research Centre for Global Finance, at the School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts; he is also a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences. He has contributed over 100 research papers, mainly in the area of banking and finance. According to the UK Research Excellence Framework (REF2014), his research on “Shaping Bank Regulatory Reforms in Africa” was recognized for exceptional impact. He is the Principal Investigator of a DFID-ESRC Research Grant on “Inclusive Finance”, 2016-2021, leading a consortium of: SOAS University of London; University of Birmingham; Columbia University; University of Sussex; University of Nottingham; ODI London; University of Groningen; Laval University; University of Ghana, Legon; & the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). His other roles include: Chair of Group C (Finance) for the AERC; Council Member of British Institute in Eastern Africa; and Visiting Professor of Financial Economics at the School of Economics, University of Nairobi. He was Chair, Econometric Society Africa Region Standing Committee, 2014-2018. Also, he was the founding Director of the African Development Institute, at the African Development Bank, 2011-2014.
Dr. Athina Petropoulou
Dr. Athina Petropoulou is a Post-Doctoral researcher at the Centre for Global Finance, SOAS University of London under the AXA Chair in Global Finance. She holds and MSc in Finance and a PhD in Finance, both from the University of Bath, UK. Her core research interests lie in the areas of banking, where she investigates credit risk, liquidity risk, efficiency and competition across alternative banking models (e.g., community banks). Her other research interests also include finance and financial econometrics and she has been involved in research projects at the University of Bath and the University of Kent.